How Markets price risks? Key insights from an analysis of the US Treasuries market.

When there is a sustained change in required excess returns relative to T-bills, investors often miss structural or quasi-structural changes in risk premia and base their decisions on a biased valuation methodology. We consider this recurring weakness of the fundamentalist approach as a major source of market instability.

The confusing behavior of the US Treasuries market illustrates this phenomenon well.

Here is the paper that addresses the issue using a new US yield curve model:

How markets price risks? Key insights from an analysis of the US Treasuries market.

Here is a non-technical presentation of the model and its implications:

How Markets Price Risks? Non-Technical Presentation.